The impact of weather on car rental prices: data from recent years

Weather is not just a topic for small talk. In car rental, it is one of the fastest triggers of demand – and therefore prices. All it takes is the first snow, ice, extreme heat or a series of rainy weekends and people's behavior changes: they suddenly want a 4x4, they move dates, change destinations or decide to go by car instead of a plane. In this article, I explain how exactly the weather enters into pricing, I will show data and examples from recent years (Slovakia/EU and abroad) and add practical advice on how to save on your budget.

What does the “weather effect” mean for rental prices

In practice, it is a combination of four mechanisms:

1) Demand (people change plans)

• sudden cooling → increased demand for SUV/4x4, cars with better equipment, winter tires
• sunny weekend after a long rain → increased last-minute bookings (trip, mountains, cottage)
• extremes (storms, floods, disasters) → demand for replacement cars or temporary mobility

2) Supply (there is “only one fleet”)

• the fleet in a specific location is limited → in the event of a sudden peak, the cheapest segment is sold out
• in the event of long rentals or seasonal peaks, cars are tied up, they do not rotate as quickly

3) Risk and operating costs

• winter = higher service costs (tires, minor damage, logistics)
• extremes = higher accident rate, more insurance claims → pressure on pricing and deposit amount

4) Revenue management and dynamic pricing

Modern car rental companies work with so-called yield/revenue management, similar to airlines and hotels:

• the price is adjusted according to availability, pre-sales, demand and predictions
• weather forecasts are often included in the models (especially during local and last-minute peaks)

Data: where seasonality is visible and why weather is its “accelerator”

Seasonality (summer, holidays, vacations) is a long-term trend. However, weather is a short-term amplifier – it can shift demand from week to week or even from day to day.

EU: summer has the highest concentration of demand

• In the EU, a large part of overnight stays fall in July and August – in practice, this means that demand for transport and services, including car rental, grows in these months.

Slovakia: growth in visitors increases sensitivity to peaks

• When tourism (domestic and foreign) grows, prices are more sensitive to local fluctuations: summer weekends, holidays, and sudden changes in weather.

More extreme weather = more “unexpected” peaks

• In recent years, more fluctuations have been seen: warm winter periods alternated with short, intense cold snaps.
• For pricing, it is crucial that a short disaster can empty the fleet of the most desirable cars (SUV/4x4) significantly faster than the "normal season".

Specific examples: how the price behaves in different types of weather

Below are the most common scenarios that are repeated across markets (Slovakia/EU and abroad). Where possible, I also add specific figures from public sources.

Winter and snow: growing demand for SUV/4x4 and "safe" cars

What's happening:

• More people are renting a car for the mountains, to visit family, for weekend trips
• Demand for SUV/4x4 (and usually for automatics) is growing sharply

How it affects the price:

• The cheapest economy cars sell out first
• SUV/4x4 have a higher base rate, but when booking early, the difference is often smaller than when booking last-minute

Example from SK (PAYLESS content):

• Payless communicates that the daily rate for a 4x4 is higher than a standard passenger car, but the difference is often smaller with promotions, packages or longer rentals.
• Warmth and sunshine: “return of trips” and last-minute weekend bookings

What’s happening:

• after a series of rainy days, a sunny weekend comes → people go on a trip by car, often without much planning
• the share of short-term rentals (2–3 days), which are sensitive to availability, is growing

How it affects prices:

• if the fleet is tight, weekend last-minute pricing can be higher than a weekly rental outside peak times
• Extremes (disasters, floods, storms, fires): replacement mobility and “crisis” demand

What’s happening:

• people need a replacement vehicle (damaged car, evacuation, relocation)
• companies are solving temporary logistics (deliveries, employee relocation)

How it affects prices:

• prices are rising mainly where supply is disrupted (cars cannot be moved quickly) or there are many insurance claims
• there are examples abroad where after major storms Demand for rentals has increased sharply

Slovakia and the EU: What You Can Actually Track (Even Without Internal Data)

Not every car rental company publishes historical price lists. However, you can track a public signal that typically correlates with the price.

1) Seasonality of tourism (EU/Slovakia)

• when you see peaks in tourism (July–August, Christmas, holidays), expect higher demand

2) Airport and “city break” waves

• an increase in flights and visitors increases demand for rentals around airports
• example from SK: at Bratislava airport, economy class prices are often mentioned in practice in the range of around €20–25/day (off-peak, when booking early)

3) Local weather (7–14-day forecast)

• first snow/ice = increase in demand for SUV/4x4
• “sudden summer” in May/June = increase in weekend rentals
• long rains = shift in demand to dates with better forecast

4) Weather-sensitive segments

• SUV/4x4: winter, mountains, disasters
• multi-seater cars: holidays, family trips, long weekends
• deliveries/LCV: moving (spring/summer), construction season, extreme events (relocations)

Comparison of solutions: how to reduce the risk of "weather makes rent more expensive"

Here is a comparison of the most common approaches that actually work for the general public.

Solution A: Early booking (most reliable leverage)

Advantages:

• wider choice of segments (especially SUV/4x4 and automatics)
• lower risk that only more expensive categories will remain

Disadvantages:

• if the plan changes, you need flexible cancellation conditions
• Solution B: Flexible package (when the forecast is uncertain)

When it makes sense:

• spring/autumn, when the weather "jumps"
• for weekend trips, where the date depends on the sun/snow

Tip:

• check if cancellation or change of reservation is free until a certain time

Solution C: The right car category (don't overpay, but don't take risks either)

• for the city, an economy/compact is often enough
• for the mountains in winter it is rational to count on an SUV/4x4 (and check the winter equipment)
• when moving a group, a multi-seater car may be more profitable than a 2 smaller vehicles

Solution D: “Off-peak” + longer rental

• paradoxically, a week can be cheaper than a weekend during peak times
• if you can be flexible, try moving it up by 1–2 days (starting on Tuesday/Wednesday)

Trends 2023–2025: why price fluctuations will be more frequent

1) Climate volatility

• fewer “stable” seasons, more short extremes → more frequent last-minute peaks

2) More dynamic pricing

• dynamic pricing is being promoted in the industry (similar to airline tickets/hotels)
• data on availability, events and often weather forecasts enter the decision-making

3) Still strong sensitivity to fleet supply

• after the pandemic period and fluctuations in car production, the market is more cautious with fleet size
• this increases the likelihood that local peaks will quickly “suck out” cheap cars

Practical "guide": when prices are typically higher and when lower

These are not fixed rules, but recurring patterns in pricing.

When prices tend to be higher

• July–August (holidays) and long weekends
• Christmas, New Year's Eve, spring break (mountains)
• when the weather changes suddenly (first snow, ice, sunny weekend)
• on the days of major events (concerts, sports, congresses)

When prices tend to be lower

• outside major holidays (typically outside July–August)
• midweek (Tuesday–Thursday) for shorter rentals
• when booking early (especially for higher categories)

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1) Why can a weekend rental be more expensive than a weekly rental?

Because weekends are peak demand (trip, family, mountains). If the fleet sells out quickly, only the higher categories remain.

2) Does the weather forecast really affect prices that quickly?

Yes - especially for last-minute bookings. When the forecast improves (sun) or worsens (snow/ice), demand can shift within 24-72 hours.

3) When is it worth booking a 4x4 for the winter?

Ideally in advance. In winter, 4x4s sell out faster because there are fewer of them in each fleet than economy cars.

4) Is it better to rent a car at the airport or in the city?

It depends on the location and availability. Airports have strong peak times (arrivals/departures, season). Sometimes the city branch is more convenient off-peak, sometimes the opposite.

5) What is the best way to avoid "overpaying" in uncertain weather?

Combination: early booking + flexible cancellation (or postponement). For weekend trips, moving the rental start by 1 day also helps.

Summary / TL;DR

• Weather accelerates demand peaks and thus increases prices, especially for last-minute bookings.
• The most sensitive segments are SUV/4x4 (winter, mountains) and short weekend rentals (sunny windows).
• Seasonality in the EU (July-August, holidays) is fundamental; weather is a short-term “accelerator”.
• The strongest levers for price: early booking, flexible conditions, the right car category.
• With increasing weather volatility, fluctuations will be more frequent - it pays to plan “smartly”.

Conclusion

You can't control the weather, but you can prepare for it. If you don't want to pay a "last-minute tax" at the first snow or the first sunny weekend, the best strategy is simple: book early, choose the right category and stay flexible.

Want to compare availability and prices by date? Check out PAYLESS offers, choose a category (economy, SUV/4x4, multi-seater) and set the date to get the best price/performance ratio.